Morning Call: Global markets rally despite new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports; Dec E-mini S&Ps up +0.20%; Dec COMEX copper up +1.72% after LME copper inventories fall to a 7-3/4 month low.
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 ESZ18 - S&P 500 E-Mini

Overnight Markets and News

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.13%) this morning are up +0.20% and European stocks are up +0.12% at a 2-week high as global markets rally on watered-down U.S. tariffs on China. Markets initially declined late yesterday when President Trump announced a 10% tariff on more than 5,000 products from China starting next week, but world equity markets recovered and moved higher after President Trump said the 10% tariffs will not increase to 25% until January 1. 2019. China's Ministry of Commerce said it would respond with levies on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods and President Trump said the U.S. will immediately pursue additional tariffs on $267 billion of Chinese imports if China does retaliate. Technology stocks moved higher after the U.S. list of Chinese-made products to be hit with new tariffs showed some Apple products were spared from tariffs. A rally in miners led European stocks higher after Dec COMEX copper (HGZ18 +1.51%) rose +1.72% on signs of tighter global supplies as LME copper inventories fell -7,885 MT to a 7-3/4 month low. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +1.41%, Hong Kong +0.56%, China +1.82%, Taiwan -0.53%, Australia -0.38%, Singapore -0.07%, South Korea +0.29%, India -0.73%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 2-1/2 year low and climbed to a 1-week high on speculation the Chinese government will take steps to offset the negative effects of U.S. tariffs. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 7-1/2 month high as exporter stocks rallied after USD/JPY jumped to a 1-3/4 month high, which boosts the earnings prospects of exporters with the weaker yen.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.08%) is up +0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD unch) is up +0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.20%) is up +0.24% at a 1-3/4 month high.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 +0-015) are down -0.5 of a tick.

The ECB said in a report that the Eurozone banking system is unlikely to restore pre-crisis levels of return on equity "due to changes in the environment, risk profile and capitalization."

Speaking at an event in Paris, ECB President Draghi said Eurozone banks need to speed up disposal of their bad loans and shrink their hard-to-value investments if they want to feel comfortable enough to merge.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Sep NAHB housing market index (expected -1 to 66, Aug -1 to 67).

Notable Russell 2000 earnings reports today include: Lennar (consensus $1.19), AutoZone (17.93), General Mills (0.64).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: X Financial (XYF).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: J.P. Morgan U.S All Stars Conference on Mon-Tue, AI Hardware Summit on Tue, Janney Montgomery Scott Healthcare Conference on Tue, RBC Capital Markets Aircraft Leasing Investor Day on Tue, Moody's Real Estate Conference on Tue, Gastech Conference - T1.7 on Tue-Wed, Autonomous Research Future of Commerce Symposium on Thu, BMO Capital Markets Real Estate Conference on Thu, Buckingham Industrials Conference on Thu, D.A Davidson Diversified Industrials & Services Conference on Thu, IAA Commercial Vehicles Trade Show on Thu, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods Insurance Conference on Thu.

Market Comments

Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 +0.13%) this morning are up +5.75 points (+0.20%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.56%, Dow Jones -0.35%, Nasdaq 100 -1.47%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on increased China/U.S. trade tensions after reports that China will reject new trade talks with the U.S. if the Trump administration moves ahead with the next round of tariffs on Chinese goods. Stocks were also undercut by the -6.5 point decline in the U.S. Sep Empire manufacturing index to a 5-month low of 19.0, weaker than expectations of -2.6 to 23.0. The broad market was also dragged lower by weakness in technology stocks.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 +0-015) this morning are down -0.5 of a tick. Monday's closes: TYZ8 -1.50, FVZ8 -0.25. Dec 10-year T-notes fell to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower on negative carry-over from a slide in 10-year German bund prices to a 1-1/2 month low and on supply pressures as bond dealers put on short T-note hedges ahead of $8 billion in corporate bonds offered by Nestle SA to help finance its partnership with Starbucks. T-note prices were supported by the weaker-than-expected U.S. Sep Empire manufacturing index and increased safe-haven demand with the decline in stocks.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.08%) this morning is up +0.056 (+0.06%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD unch) is up +0.0004 (+0.03%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.20%) is up +0.27 (+0.24%) at a 1-3/4 month high. Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.431 (-0.45%), EUR/USD +0.0058 (+0.50%), USD/JPY -0.21 (-0.19%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on the decline in the U.S. Sep Empire manufacturing index to a 5-month low. There was also strength in EUR/USD due to hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Vasiliauskas who said, "there's no ground to talk about extension of stimulus at this point in time given the domestic euro area growth."

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ18 -0.08%) -0.7 (-0.06%), Dec silver (SIZ18 +0.05%) +0.032 (+0.22%) and Dec copper (HGZ18 +1.51%) +0.046 (+1.72%). Monday's closes: Dec gold +4.7 (+0.39%), Dec silver +0.081 (+0.57%), Dec copper +0.50 (+0.19%). Metals on Monday closed higher on a weaker dollar and on increased safe-haven demand for precious metals with the decline in stocks and the increased trade tensions. Copper was undercut by signs of tighter copper supplies after LME copper inventories fell -3,975 MT to a 7-3/4 month low of 221,925 MT.

Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV18 +1.28%) this morning are up +86 cents (+1.25%) and Oct gasoline (RBV18 +1.27%) is +2.73 (+1.38%). Monday's closes: Oct crude oil -0.08 (-0.12%), Oct gasoline +0.66 (+0.33%). Oct crude oil and gasoline on Monday settled mixed. Crude oil prices were boosted by a weaker dollar and by concern that global oil supplies will shrink due to production losses in Venezuela and looming full U.S. sanctions on Iran in November. Crude oil prices were undercut by news that Russian crude oil production in the first half of Sep rose to 11.33 million bpd from 11.21 million bpd in Aug.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Universal Health Services (UHS +0.14%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch with a price target of $155.

FedEx (FDX +0.11%) lost more than 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $3.46, weaker than consensus of $3.80.

Walmart (WMT +0.24%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $110.

Argenx SE (ARGX -0.01%) slid more than 3% in after-hours trading after it announced that it had commenced an underwritten public offering of $300 million of American Depositary Shares (ADS).

Oracle (ORCL -0.14%) fell almost 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted revenue of $9.20 billion, weaker than consensus of $9.26 billion.

Nexeo Solutions (NXEO -0.30%) rallied 16% in after-hours trading after Univar announced that it had acquired Nexeo for about $2 billion or $11.65 per share.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY +0.03%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Edward Jones.

Array BioPharma (ARRY -0.87%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Guggenheim Securities with a price target of $32.

Radcom (RDCM -28.99%) dropped 3% on top of Monday's 29% plunge as its second-biggest customer, Globe Telecom, which represented 34% of Radcom's revenue in Q2, has sufficient exposure in the Philippines which suffered extensive damage from Typhoon Mangkhut.

NIO Inc (NIO -14.14%) fell 3% in after-hours trading on top of Monday's 14% decline following last week's surge in the stock price after its initial public offering last Wednesday.

Avon Products (AVP +2.97%) surged nearly 20% in after-hours trading after the WSJ reported that Brazil's Natura Cosmeticos approached Avon about a takeover.