Soybean futures firmed up after double digit losses at midday, closing the Friday session down 3 1/4 to 9 cents. May soybean futures ended the week 1.76% above last Friday’s close, but a 3.9% gain from the end of January. The oldest long for March beans is October 7, 2020, with no delivery notices on FND. The cmdtyView national average soybean basis is 40 1/2 cents under March, compared to minus 44 cents at the same point last season. Soymeal prices were down $0.90 to $1.70 at the close to $421.40 for May. CME reported 7 soymeal delivery issues against March meal. Soybean oil futures head into the weekend near 50 cents following 13 to 38 point gains in the front months.

The weekly CoT report showed managed money soybean traders added 10k new longs on the week ending 2/23. That extended the net long 10,954 contracts to 172,364. Commercials extended their net short by 13,714 to 282,460 after closing more longs than shorts on the week. Total commercial OI was down 8% on the week. For soymeal, spec traders were 2,652 contracts more net long to 17,862. BO spec traders were 112,645 contracts net long, up by 2,249 on net new buying.  

Trade estimates ahead of the monthly Fats and Oils report show analysts expect 195.6 mbu of January crush. That would be up 1.9 mbu from December and the second highest ever (behind October ’20) if realized. The report is scheduled for Monday.

The International Grains Council raised their soybean production estimate for 2020/21 to 360 MMT, from 359 in Jan. Stocks were maintained at 45 MMT. The February BAGE estimate calls for a slight reduction to Argentine soy yields, but overall output is UNCH at 46 MMT.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Prices by Barchart

Soymeal Prices by Barchart

Soy Oil Prices by Barchart